You Can’t Control the Market—But You Can Control This
The most overlooked edge in retirement investing isn’t performance
By now, it should be obvious to every investor: we live in a world where uncertainty is the norm, not the exception.
Markets are volatile. Economies are unpredictable. Forecasts from Wall Street analysts and central bankers alike regularly miss the mark.
And yet, retirement investors—many of whom have spent decades building their wealth—are often the ones most tempted to cling to the idea that someone, somewhere, has the answer.
They don’t.
As Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital, put it bluntly in his latest memo: “Nobody knows (Yet Again)” The future can’t be analyzed. It hasn’t happened yet. And trying to build your retirement around what might happen is a recipe for stress, not security.
So if prediction is a trap, what’s the alternative?
A process. A repeatable, rational framework that doesn’t rely on clairvoyance—but responds with clarity when things change.
That’s not as flashy as calling the next recession or market top. But it works. And for those focused on turning their savings into sustainable, long-term income, it’s the smarter way forward.
Forecasts Are Fragile. Systems Are Strong.
There’s nothing wrong with watching the data. The danger lies in acting like it’s a roadmap.
No one consistently predicts when inflation will spike, when rates will peak, or when geopolitical shocks will roil the markets. That’s especially true in retirement, where getting it wrong has higher stakes—because you may not have the luxury of time to recover.
But a solid process doesn’t require perfect foresight. It just requires consistent logic.
It tells you when to rebalance your holdings.
It keeps you from overreacting to short-term headlines.
And it helps you lean into trends—rather than chase them.
The right system doesn’t eliminate risk. It organizes it.
How a Process Works in Practice
At Wellth, we look at portfolios using a quadrant-based macro framework. Instead of asking, “What’s the market going to do next?” we ask, “What kind of environment are we in right now—and how should we respond?”
The economy tends to rotate between four dominant regimes, based on whether growth and inflation are rising or falling. That simple framework allows us to tilt portfolios accordingly.
In rising inflation? We emphasize real assets, like gold and commodities.
In slowing growth? We lean toward bonds and capital preservation.
In periods of disinflation and strong growth? We allocate toward equities.
No guesswork. No market timing. Just structure.
Recently, for instance, the data pointed to a shift into a “falling growth, falling inflation” quadrant. So we pivoted—reducing equity exposure, increasing fixed income, and adding weight to precious metals.
That wasn’t based on a hunch. It was based on a disciplined response to changing conditions.
But let’s be clear: you don’t need to follow our system. You just need _a_ system. Because the real risk isn’t having the wrong process—it’s having no process at all.
Why This Matters for Retirement
When you’re working, time is your biggest asset. But in retirement, _stability_ is. You don’t have 30 years to wait out bad cycles. You need income today and growth tomorrow.
And that’s why process matters.
It removes emotion. It sidesteps prediction. And it replaces blind hope with disciplined action.
In practical terms, a strong retirement investment process might include:
- Scheduled rebalancing tied to macro conditions.
- Flexible withdrawal rates based on market health.
- Exposure to real assets when inflation rears up.
- Cash buffers or short-term bonds to reduce forced selling.
These ideas aren’t new. What’s new is the urgency.
Because the world has changed—and portfolios that don’t adapt are getting left behind.
What You Should Do Now
No matter if you are saving for retirement or already in it, here are three questions worth asking:
Do I have a clear process for how my portfolio will adapt if the economy shifts?
Can I explain why I own what I own—not just in general, but right now?
Am I relying on a prediction, or following a plan?
If you can’t answer those questions confidently, you’re not alone. But you are exposed.
Start by defining your rules. Build a framework. Or partner with someone who has one.
Because prediction is a trap. But process? That’s peace of mind.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.